Did She Just Say "Pundint"?

eh? I know Suze Orman is already a target for laughs, portrayed on Saturday Night Live by Kristin Wiig. So I'll try not to get petty here.

There are a few well known "pundits", or even actual financial services practicioners, who have taken opposition to some of Suze's advice. Particularly her hardcore blanketed advice to pay down all debt as a top priority. Critics say, sometimes it's just not that black and white.

In this video, Suze makes a key shift in favor of liquidity for safety purposes as a priority over eliminating credit card debt. It's interesting to note however, that this advice comes too late in the game for many to react. I think it really highlights the key issue some have with her advice - we need to be financially prepared for the unknowns in life before they hit us. It doesn't really help to start preparing for disaster after it strikes.

Her former advice to pay down credit card debt is basically a math lesson gift wrapped as financial planning advice. Too many of the variables in her equation are held constant, when true financial planning takes a subjective, individualized look at all variables in a particular scenario. Same goes for the new advice - that may be the right idea for some, but don't mistake what is going on here. Her extreme point of view, and universal conviction are what make her interesting enough to put on TV. That's not what makes individual advice pertinent or valuable.

For kicks, here's the SNL version.

Long Exhale... Brain Dump 06/09/2009

I've been plugging away some long hours over the last few months, but I'm back to shake some dust of the blog here. No cohesion promised here, just a spewing of some of the more evocative and interesting ideas, quotes, etc that I've seen since the last post:

- Jon La Grou introduces an awesome home construction enhancement, cheap, smart, simple. Updating 150 year old technology, bravo. 5 min video

- John Mauldin on the current crisis: "..This again illustrates the problem of using past performance to protect future results. You have to look at the underlying conditions in order to get a real comparison, and we have not seen a deleveraging recession in the US for 80 years. Using the past data in today's world is useful, and may be harmful to your portfolio." >> Word.

- Pimco's Paul McCulley on the current crisis: "There's nothing like a bull market to make geniuses out of levered dunces."

- There's a battle Royale taking place right now in the debate on the future of interest rates. We saw the low trend break down over the last two weeks, and what followed was one of the biggest downlegs in the bond market I've ever seen. Cheerleaders of the recovery think that long term interest rates need to be higher to attract investment capital. The Federal Reserve can't continue to make the market with mortgages at 4.5% if all of the 'safe haven' dollars are now getting cozy with alternative vehicles to the US Treasury markets. But are we even out of the woods yet? With credit contracting, and unemployment rising (10% here we come!) how are we supposed to spend our way back to positive GDP growth? It doesn't add up... I said it before, and I'll say it again, we've got a lot of bites left in this sandwich...

- US Housing affordability index (which began tracking data in 1971) was at an ALL TIME HIGH before rates popped. This has been bringing in bargain hunters to gobble up the excess housing inventory. But the momentum was just getting going. With rates up, it knocks the index back a ways. But financing a home today is still cheap by historical standards. 30 year average of the 30 year fixed mortgage rate is closer to 7.500%

- In much of the recent economic press, there is discourse along the lines of "the worst is behind us". The stock market has had one or two down weeks over the last three months. In other circles, we hear "commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop". Given that it would be less likely that the government would bailout strip mall developers, will the markets be able to shake off an era of see-through buildings and continue dancing like there's nothing to worry about?

Is The Stimulus Coming to a Town Near You?

Stimulus Watch.

This is a pretty cool resource. It gives an overview of the projects, budgets, and number of jobs created by various stimulus plan initiatives.

I clicked around for a few local towns, places I've traveled recently, and places I've lived.

Oakland CA
San Ramon CA
Pasadena CA
San Francisco CA
Jackson MS
Nashville (zip!) TN & Memphis (zilch!) TN
Maui HI
Grants Pass (nada!) OR
Tucson AZ

California's $10,000 Tax Credit for New Home Buyers

No income limitations? Not limited to first time buyers?

A quiet little news item that for some reason isn't grabbing as much headline attention as I would expect... has me a little curious about the validity. A quick search points to several mentions, but all trace back to blogs on new home builder sites, and PR releases from builders like THIS ONE. I guess that makes sense, but I'd expect to see more attention drawn to this, or something pointing to an official CA.GOV page.

If this is legitimate, it is in some ways BETTER than the federal tax credit of $8000 to first time buyers with qualified income. And if you are a first time buyer in California, you could be eligible for both!

UPDATE: Proposed Changes to Tax Credit, Conforming Limits

Republican amendments to the current stimulus package up for vote later today include:

-Restoring the $729,750 loan limits in some areas

-Temporarily offer homebuyers a tax credit worth $15,000 or 10% of a home’s purchase price, whichever is less, with the option to utilize all in one year or spread out over two years. The credit does not have to be paid back. It would be available to all purchases of any home from date of enactment for one full year - no longer just a first time homebuyer credit, and borrowers would be able to claim the credit against the 2008 tax return.

-Other details:

1. buyers must occupy the home for two years as their principle residence
2. includes a two year recapture provision (if they leave the home in two years they lost the credit)
3. purchases of homes by investors are ineligible
   

The bill is still working its way through Congress, and the House of Representatives must still negotiate with the Senate since the House bill does not contain the credit.

Proposed Changes to Homebuyer Tax Credit, Conforming Limits

Rumors are going around about the following ideas, supposedly on the table for legislative discussion:

First Time Buyer Tax Credit Change:
Currently, the credit is up to $7500 for qualified first time buyers, and the funds are expected to be repaid at the rate of $500 per year for the ensuing 15 years.

Proposed changes are for increasing the credit to $14,000, and also to make it forgivable. In other words, no requirement to be repaid. Ever.

That is a significant change, and would represent a MAJOR incentive to enter the market.


Conforming Loan Limits:
Currently, the limit is 417k nationally, and in some high cost areas, it can be as high as 625,500. All 9 Bay Area counties are currently at 625,500. During 2008, the ceiling was higher – 729,750, but the “temporary” classification caused the lenders, who still operate in a free market world, to have almost zero interest. It didn’t really work. The 625,500 level was more conservative, but permanent. It has helped, but not quite as well as intended.

Proposed changes would reinstate the ceiling at 729,750 for qualified California property, or, according to one source, raise the ceiling to ~$932,000 for qualified California property.

Also potentially significant change, unlocking many borrowers with high outstanding loan balances on expensive property. No way of knowing if lenders will have an appetite for these deals or not, but it’s something to keep an eye on…

Where Are California's Most Undervalued Real Estate Markets?

According to the Sept 10 Kiplinger Letter, which they admit may surprise some, they are:

San Diego 17.2% undervalued!
San Francisco 15.9% undervalued!
Stockton 13.8% undervalued!
Vallejo 13.4% undervalued!
Modesto 12.9% undervalued!
Santa Ana/Anaheim 12.4% undervalued!
Santa Barbara 12.3% undervalued!
Sacramento 11.1% undervalued!

Despite the fact that some of these areas are known to have some of the worst subprime mortgage problems, Global Insight (a forecaster) suggests that they have relatively healthy economies, strong job growth to support demand, and home prices have already dropped significantly.

hmmm... signs of a bottom? or overly optimistic?

Down Payment Assistance Programs - Updates At Legislative Level

I am breaking a long inexplicable silence here to follow up to a recent post about rules surrounding seller-funded down payment assistance programs (DAP).

What's a DAP? (or a DPA? I'm not sure if there is an official acronym; both seem prevalent at this point). With the credit markets recoiling, the ability for homebuyers to enter the market with small down payments has been hampered. Big time. Lender's simply want the borrower to have skin in the game, so that if the value drops a little, they still have incentive to keep paying back the loan.

The DAP programs that were eliminated in the recent HR 3221 Housing Bill refer to those facilitated by a charitable organization to essentially 'launder' a down payment from the seller of the home. The down payment needs to be from the buyer's funds, not the seller's. If it came from the seller, its the same as buying the house for cheaper. Proponents of DAP argue that the borrower has equity in the house, regardless of the source. Opponents claim that the fair value of the house is really the purchase price less the seller-funded down payment, or in other words, there is no equity.

FHA was allowing these programs until they realized that default rates on borrowers with DAP assistance were 3x that of borrowers who funded their own down payment.

But without DAP in the market, fewer buyers can get into the market at entry level. And if there are no first-time buyers, who do the move-up buyers sell their homes to? They don't, and all of the sudden, nobody is buying anything, and inventories skyrocket, and prices fall... sound familiar? This is the "plankton theory of housing". We need first time buyers to keep everything moving...

There are also community organizations that provide down payment assistance, but do not receive funding from the seller of the home. There is no regulation on the table to curtail these programs, and with them, buyers can still obtain 100% financing in some circumstances.

Here is the latest on the seller-funded side of the practice:

At this point the ban on the use of seller-funded down-payment assistance with FHA-backed loans takes affect October 1st. But a compromise may be in the works. HR 6694, which would allow home builders to continue funneling down-payment assistance through nonprofit groups to home buyers using FHA loans, may pass. HR 6694 would automatically allow qualified borrowers with credit scores of 680 or above to use seller-funded down-payment assistance on FHA-backed loans. Borrowers with scores between 620-680, who relied on seller-funded gifts, might be subject to higher insurance premium fees. Borrowers with scores below 620 would be excluded from using down-payment assistance until mid-2009, when HUD would be permitted to expand the program to include them if the Secretary of Housing determined it could be done without putting a dent in FHA's insurance requiring taxpayer subsidies. Chairman Barney Frank said, "The FHA loved the ban on down-payment assistance (but) hated the ban on risk-based pricing…That seemed to me to offer an opportunity. So (HR 6694) will replace both bans with middle ground.”

Buy Or Rent - What Can We Learn From The Rent Ratio?

The New York Times has an interesting graphic illustrating the costs of renting versus owning a home in various US cities. The Rent Ratio is a useful metric for people contemplating the costs of renting versus owning a home. Bay Area residents will notice that the ownership premium is higher here than many other areas, especially non-coastal metro zones. Historical appreciation records are likely the reason why buyers are willing to pay a greater premium in these cities.

Understanding the true costs of renting relative to the true cost of owning, you need to look well beyond average rent prices and average mortgage payments for equivalent properties. A true rent vs. buy analysis will take into account:

• inflation of rent costs
• opportunity costs of down payment funds that could have been invested elsewhere
• return on investment of dollars invested rather than spent on mortgage payments in excess of equivalent rent
• tax implications of owning real estate
• appreciation of housing as an asset
  

Also, are we looking at the cost of renting the home we want to buy? Or are we looking at the cost of renting the home we would likely rent, if we chose not to buy? They may not be the same, for when we are not required to sink 100k or 200k into a down payment, we may be inclined to spend an extra $200, $300 even $500 a month more in rent. If you want to see how a true rent vs. own analysis works, please email me.

Some other interesting observations: San Jose, CA has the highest ratio. New York City is surprisingly low, suggesting that it's not only expensive to own, but also to rent in that city.

OFHEO's Four Quarter Price Change By State For US Housing

Interesting graphic. With all the news about house price declines, and expectations of declines in the current marketplace, there are some interesting take-aways from this chart, published last week by OFHEO. You can read the full report here. OFHEO says the decline in values is accelerating. I like the pictures, and this one is telling. Most markets appear flat, and Utah and Wyoming are showing above-average gains year-over-year. Worst performance is in California. Easy come, easy go? Housing prices, like all asset value cycles, are showing characteristics of "Mean Reversion".

Another Reason To Pay As Little As Possible Into Your Home Equity

Reason: Corrupt Insurance Companies.

File under: SAFETY.

Staying liquid is safer. Might it cost you a few more dollars? Sure, but its safer. What's that worth to you? Nothing brings that point home like images of houses in flames, homeowners in tears, and more houses in flames.

Watch all three installments of this video, an effort by PBS and Bloomberg.

I can't really weigh on where the bias is in this, but I am sure there is some. The media loves to portray big business (insurance companies) as evil, and looking to choose dollars over people all day long. But how well do you know about your homeowners policy? Do you know anybody who lost their home in the Oakland Hills Fire? How about the 2003/2004/2005/2006/2007 fires in San Diego/Los Angeles/Orange/San Bernadino/Santa Barbara/Ventura County?

What I can do, is point out to you that it is important to review and understand your policy. It's important to work with an insurance provider who is reputable and reliable. If you need a referral to one, please email me.

And I can also teach you some highly effective mortgage strategies that help you take control of your financial profile, build liquidity and safety, and rest easy at night.

Nobody expects disaster to happen to them. But if it does, and you have a fight on your hands with the insurance company, it can take YEARS to settle, or be indemnified. Regardless of the outcome, where are you going to live while the fight goes on - and how are you going to pay for it when the insurance company is denying your claim?

Here's another example: Senator Trent Lott has been down this road related to Hurricane Katrina devastation to a home he owned free and clear.

Jumbo & Conforming Loan Limits - More Market Chatter 5/12/08

Last week Fannie Mae made an announcement about a new "keys to recovery initiative". Below is an overview as forwarded by a colleague. We are expecting more to follow this week, but at the origination level, we are already seeing the effects of this in the Jumbo-Conforming sector pricing for the new high balance conforming sized transactions. If you have questions about this, email me.


KEYS TO RECOVERY INITIATIVES

Fannie Mae’s Keys to Recovery™ initiatives are geared toward providing liquidity, stability, and affordability to the housing and mortgage markets for the long term, and include steps to keep struggling borrowers in their homes, assist prospective homebuyers with home purchases, and stabilize communities impacted by the
mortgage market downturn. The initiatives include
1) a new refinancing option for Fannie Mae “underwater” borrowers that will allow for
refinancing up to 120% of a property’s current value;
2) a renewal and expansion of the company’s partnership
with the state Housing Finance Agencies (HFAs) to provide $10 billion in financing for qualified, first-time
homebuyers;
3) in partnership with Self-Help Credit Union, a new initiative that allows families in hard-hit
communities to reside in foreclosed properties on a rent-to-own basis; and
4) pricing for new jumbo-conforming
loans that will be flat to conforming for portfolio asset acquisition through the end of the year.

Refinancing “Underwater” Borrowers
With home prices declining in many areas of the country and lending standards tightening as a result of the
ongoing turmoil in the housing finance system, many borrowers find themselves with mortgages that exceed
the value of their homes and are locked out of refinancing into safer loans that would allow them to sustain
their mortgage payments.
In order to assist borrowers whose home equity is “underwater,” reduce foreclosures and support sustained
homeownership, Fannie Mae will purchase refinanced loans the company owns for up to 120% of the current
property value provided the borrower is current with their mortgage payments.

HFA Investment
HFAs exist to provide affordable homeownership and rental housing opportunities within their states. The
majority of HFA single-family business is for first-time homebuyers who have received borrower counseling
and down payment and/or closing cost assistance from the government.
Fannie Mae has maintained a long-term agreement with the National Council of State Housing Agencies
(NCSHA) to purchase loans generated by the HFAs. The company is renewing and expanding its agreement
with NCHSA to purchase up to $10 billion in HFA loans by the end of 2009. In addition, the company will
provide preferred pricing on HFA business to lower borrower costs for first-time homebuyers.

Neighborhood Stabilization
In order to minimize the neighborhood impact of foreclosed properties, Fannie Mae will support an initiative
with Self-Help Credit Union in partnership with local non-profits to purchase Fannie Mae-owned, foreclosed
homes in hard-hit neighborhoods. The nonprofits would acquire and rehab the properties, and then sell them to qualified borrowers or enter into a customized lease-purchase agreement. The initiative will be geared toward borrowers who have the income to qualify for the home purchase, but need additional time to improve creditworthiness. Participants choosing the rent-to-own option would be granted up to five years to qualify for the mortgage and receive extensive credit counseling during the lease period.

Jumbo-Conforming Loans
Following passage of the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, Fannie Mae is temporarily able to purchase loans
greater than the conventional-conforming loan limit of $417,000. In certain high cost-areas as designated by
HUD, the company is able to purchase jumbo-conforming loans up to $729,750 in the continental U.S. The
company is now accepting deliveries of 15-year and 30-year fixed-rate (FRM), and certain adjustable-rate
(ARM), jumbo-conforming mortgages.

In order to bolster liquidity in the jumbo-conforming market and help reduce rates for jumbo-conforming
mortgages in high-cost areas, the company will now:
• Price new jumbo-conforming loans flat to conforming for portfolio asset acquisition through the end
of the year. This means that although jumbos are not TBA-eligible, we will be pricing them as if
they were.
• Allow for cash-out, jumbo-conforming loan refinancings.
• Expand loan-to-value (LTV) criteria for jumbo-conforming purchase loans and limited cash-out
refinancings.
• Offer expanded jumbo-conforming FRM and ARM options.

HomeStay
The company’s Keys to Recovery™ efforts build on Fannie Mae’s HomeStay™ initiative announced last year.
The company is working with lenders, loan servicing companies and policymakers to respond to the housing
and mortgage market crisis with a goal to minimize the impact on families and communities by preventing
foreclosures, supporting counseling efforts, and providing market stability. Through HomeStay™, since the
beginning of 2007, the company has:
• Helped more than 200,000 at-risk homeowners refinance into safer loans or work out their loans,
including nearly $28 billion in refinancings for subprime borrowers.
• Provided more than $10 million in grants – and hundreds of employee volunteer hours – to support
foreclosure prevention counseling and workshops since the housing crisis deepened last year.
• Worked with loan servicers to emphasize work-outs for delinquent loans, instituted attorney incentive
fees for workouts, provided HomeSaver Advance™ loans that allow borrowers to catch up on their
delinquent mortgage payments, deployed staff to work on-site with our largest servicers, and made
dozens of operational changes and enhanced servicer authorities to allow for easier modifications and
work-outs.
• Supported HOPE NOW initiatives and public policies to give at-risk and delinquent borrowers a better
chance to afford their mortgages.

Social And Economic Problems With The US Housing Market; Would You Rent Your Home To Jose Canseco?

First things first. Jose Canseco, who I will always remember for bouncing a ball off his head and over the home run wall, and getting pulled over in my hometown a few times cruising in a convertible and a gun in his lap, is in foreclosure. Unless he owns another home to move into, he's looking for a place to rent. Are you looking for a renter to that investment home you speculated on and can't refinance because of the credit crisis?

A new report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and the National Low Income Housing Coalition presents some of the current trends in the relationship between home renting and ownership. They present a good outline of some of the challenges lawmakers are facing when trying to figure out how to regulate us out of the current mess we are in. Worth a read, at least of the executive summary. Definitely read it if you are thinking of renting your house to Jose Canseco.

New FHA Loan Limits By Area - Great Interactive Tool!

Want to know why the new conforming loan limits wont help you? Stay tuned for my next post... In the meantime, I'll skip right past the final word and show this great new tool for searching the new limits for FHA loans in your area.

This market is moving quickly. The need for guidance and careful planning is greater than it has been for years. Make sure you are getting the help you need. If you have not heard from your broker recently, he/she may have become a casualty of a massive reduction in workforce in the mortgage industry. If you would like to discuss your options or join my management program, please email me.

Conforming Loan Limts For 2008 - FINALLY ANNOUNCED!!

From OFHEO:

TEMPORARY CONFORMING LOAN LIMITS RELEASED FOR HIGH COST AREAS

Washington, DC – The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) today released the maximum conforming loan limits that will be in effect through year-end as a result of The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. That legislation permits Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to raise their conforming loan limits in certain high-cost areas. The new jumbo limits are a function of median home prices as estimated by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

The maximum for temporary jumbo conforming loan limits, which apply to loans originated in the period between July 1, 2007 and December 31, 2008, are as high as $729,750 for one-unit homes in the continental United States. Two, three and four-unit homes have higher limits as well. Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and the Virgin Islands also have higher maximum limits.

There are two data sources reflecting the new maximum limits. The first, on OFHEO’s Web site, available at www.ofheo.gov/media/hpi/AREA_LIST.pdf, reports only those counties and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that are affected by the new loan limits. Data for all areas are available on the HUD Web site at https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicostlook.cfm.

Seventy-one Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas are affected including 245 counties and cities not in counties. In addition, there are 21 counties outside of Metropolitan or Micropolitan areas that show increases, plus Guam and four municipalities in the Marianas Islands. The newly increased limits range from $417,500 in Greeley, Colorado to the highest of $793,750 in Honolulu, Hawaii.

In support of HUD’s calculation of county median home prices, OFHEO provided HUD rural house price indexes for 48 states. HUD used these indexes, which reflect price changes for homes outside of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, to estimate median prices in counties for which sales price data were sparse. OFHEO has made these indexes available at: /hpi_download.aspx.

###



OFHEO's mission is to promote housing and a strong national housing finance system by ensuring the safety and soundness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Conforming Loan Limts For 2008 - Market Chatter 2/26/08

A little less excitement over jumbo/conforming loan limit changes as the reality drags on. I have heard of buyers trying to delay close of escrow to wait for the new limits, but we still really do not know how its going to look. But I do still expect it to offer some significant help to some people in the 417-729k range, especially where equity is below 20%

From A Colleague:

During a recent teleconference with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (“HUD”), NAMB learned that HUD plans to publish the new FHA loan limits in a Mortgagee Letter to be issued during the first week of March. HUD will publish separate lists for the FHA program and the GSEs. Additionally, HUD will be recalculating the median home prices which are used to calculate the loan limits. The new loan limits will be based on 125% of the median home price in counties across the country, and will be capped at $729,750. The floor for FHA loans will be raised from $201,060 to $271,050, and originators can begin processing applications now for any loan that was assigned an FHA case number after February 13th (the date the bill was enacted). These changes are a result of the Economic Stimulus Package signed by Pres Bush on February 13th, and will expire after one year. However, HUD officials participating on the teleconference indicated that more comprehensive FHA reform should be moving through Congress in the coming weeks.

Conforming Loan Limts For 2008 - Market Chatter 2/21/08

Capital Markets Analyst:

HUD has 30 days from the day the President signed the package into law to identify the impacted Metropolitan Statistical Areas, so it may be sometime in mid-March before all lenders receive the official pricing notification. At this point anything else is pure conjecture. Although several mortgage lenders have promoted lists of what they believe the new limits will be, these are only estimates because HUD has yet to determine the higher loan limits. HUD will determine the new loan limits based on the median area sales prices – but which ones? 2007? The fourth quarter of 2007? The third quarter? Median area sales prices may be dramatically different throughout the year, so the timeframe used by HUD to determine the higher loan limits is very important.

Conforming Loan Limts For 2008 - Market Chatter 2/19/08

Some of this may be tough to follow. If you have questions, email me.

From A Colleague:

The Secretary of HUD, and OMB, have 30 days from the signing the bill to provide suggested guidelines for loan types, units, etc. to OFHEO. After that, OFHEO will make recommendations to FNMA & FHLMC, who in turn will make recommendations to large investors (Citi, Wells, Countrywide, Chase, etc.) regarding the types of loans, fixed or adjustable, number of units, etc. No one is sure of the exact schedule.

Statistical areas are manipulated by various federal agencies, depending on their wants. For example, the EPA may put a county like Sonoma or Napa into the San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area, in spite of Napa & Sonoma Counties being their own “micro” statistical area, whereas the OMB may split them out. A combinations of areas is called a “CSA”, or Combined Statistical Area. The National Housing Act provides formulas for HUD to determine maximum mortgage limits for loans insured by FHA. These limits are determined by the county in which the property is located. You can view all local FHA Mortgage Limits at this website. The bill that was signed by the President did not specifically address the areas that will be affected, as mentioned above. You can keep checking the attached website periodically to find out what the increase will be.

READ THIS PART 2X (JG)

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), publishes “Good Delivery Guidelines” for To-Be-Announced (TBA) trading of Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) pools issued by Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) and Ginnie Mae. The TBA market facilitates the forward trading of MBS issued by GSEs and Ginnie Mae by creating parameters under which mortgage pools can be considered fungible and thus do not need to be explicitly known at the time a trade is initiated – hence the name “To Be Announced.” The TBA market is the most liquid, and consequently the most important secondary market for mortgage loans. SIFMA will keep the maximum TBA eligible original loan balance at current levels and clarify several long standing market practices for good delivery. The current maximum original balance allowable for a loan on a one family property in a TBA eligible Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac pool is $417,000 in most states. However, in Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands the limit rises to $625,500. Higher balance loans which are now temporarily eligible for Federal Housing Authority (FHA) and GSE guarantee programs under H.R. 5140, the Stimulus Package, will not be eligible for inclusion in TBA-eligible pools. They are instead expected to be securitized under unique pool codes for trading on a “specified pool” basis or inclusion in Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) transactions.

Conforming Loan Limts For 2008 - Market Chatter 02/15/08

From A Colleague:

Speaking of different areas of the country, most people think in terms of country, state, county, town, street, even zip code. But “MSA”? The new conforming loan limits discuss Metropolitan Statistical Areas. For the complete list, which also shows the counties included in each MSA, click here. Remember that OFHEO, to the best of my knowledge, has not ruled on whether or not ARM loans are included, nor 2-4 units, nor IO loans. And therefore neither have Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, and therefore neither have any investors.

“Median”: the middle number in a given sequence of numbers. (4 is the median of 1, 3, 4, 80, 90). Speaking of MSA’s, here in California, the median income (half below, half above) was $64,563 in 2006. The top county – Marin – had a median income of $99,713. So it would appear that, to take advantage of the new limits, loan agents will be focusing on borrowers with much higher incomes than the median. In a full doc scenario, with reasonable debt-to-income levels, a borrower earning $100k per year may not qualify for a $700k loan. Perhaps an income, under the most generic of underwriting & borrower criteria, of something above $125k would be needed to get a DU approval for the new loan amounts.

Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, says it will take lenders three to six months to make technical changes so their systems can process the larger loans. And after that, Wall Street investors still must determine the risk of buying these bigger loans. Doesn’t that put us into 2009? So interest rates might not come down as much as some hope, Duncan cautioned. "On balance (the stimulus package) is a plus," he says, "but I would not expect immediate or dramatic change in the near term."

What’s the big deal with FHA loans? Currently the FHA program has no declining value adjustments at the government level, has low down payment and loan to values as high as 97%, cash out refinances allowed to 85%, rate and tern refinances to 97%, total down payment can be a gift, no credit score requirements, no income limits or sales price restrictions, FHA loans are assumable, seller concessions may be as high as 6%, no cash reserves required, non-occupying borrowers are allowed with blended ratios (SFR only), non taxable income (including child support) may be grossed up, and bankruptcies allowed after 2 years. We’ll see if investors continue allowing all of these with $729 loan amounts, of if they add “overlays” to restrict underwriting.

Quetions? a me.

Conforming Loan Limts For 2008 - Market Chatter 2/14/08

From A Colleague:

The two major questions on the new conforming & FHA loans rage on: when and how? The President is expected to sign the bill this afternoon. However, James Lockhart, OFHEO Director (the regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) indicated that any increase in the GSE limits would require “new product approval process” to evaluate credit risk, concerns about geographic concentration in high risk markets and prepayment risk associated with jumbo purchases. He went on to say that implementation could take between one and up to three months for enactment, and that operational issues including system changes could delay implementation. Since FNMA & FHLMC follow OFHEO’s lead, these comments must be taken seriously, especially since he was opposed to the mortgage limit increase.

questions? Email me.

Stay tuned...