The following is a copy of one of the best recent blurbs I have seen to describe the prospects of recession here in the US, and it comes from Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust. You can follow his work here.
"The financial sector, especially the banking system, is the transmission mechanism between the Federal Reserve and the private sector of the economy. If the financial transmission is not functioning properly, the Federal Reserve can mash on the monetary accelerator but little power gets transmitted to thet "wheels" of the economy."
The "wheels" he refers to is consumer spending. Recent bank losses are going to prevent these institutions from making use of the lower Fed Funds rates for some time, as they are still trying to stop the bleeding. We will not see the effects play through to the consumer accordingly. Kasriel thinks we are in a recession, and that it will mimic the one we experienced in 1991, citing that the above analogy applied then as it does now. Very interesting piece, I recommend reading it.
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About Me
- john
- As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) with extensive experience in the mortgage industry, I specialize in helping my clients find, structure and manage mortgage debt as one piece of a larger financial strategy. I provide my clients with detailed home loan and debt structuring guidance that compliments their long term financial objectives, including college savings, retirement planning and other investment goals. With an understanding of financial planning concepts that relate to taxation, investment strategy, and estate planning, I work to create a personal strategic mortgage solution for my clients’ diverse financial needs. I collaborate with advisors in other financial fields, and introduce other specialists for guidance as needed. The ability to assess and advise on all aspects of a client’s financial situation can minimize financing costs and tax exposure while building net worth – a benefit often missed when focusing on home loans exclusively.