I wonder if in a few years, when we look back at this great Credit Crunch episode, and the associated economic slowdown, if we will remember the extreme moodiness of the markets during the transition. It seems every other week the Dow is posting multi-day consecutive 3-digit gains or similar consecutive losses. The financial news media is loaded with guys who say "we are nearing bottom" or "we are at the bottom", yet none of these guys was here telling us we were headed for this in the first place, so how are they expecting to be viewed as credible? One article I read recently (from Marc Faber, introduced by John Mauldin) labeled this a "conspiracy of optimism". A pretty dismal prognosis for our economy is laid out in this piece. I have to admit, it was a bit jarring to read.
But the view is a slight bit different in this one, from Pimco's Paul McCulley. With all this debate going on about stagflation, wage-price spirals, the 1930s (depression) or the 1970's ("the lost decade", at least economically speaking), and general financial Armageddon, eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week for an updated policy statement. Expectations, via the Fed Funds Futures trading activity, are all over the place in predicting the Fed Funds rate over the coming year. There is a general lack of consensus, the market is confused.
It will be interesting to see if "Doctor" Bernanke appears on board with McCulley's concept of a Hippocratic Oath, and there should be a lot of attention on tomorrow's Fed news release.
Interesting times for sure. Where exactly is this economy headed, and what's it going to mean to you? How does it impact your investments? Your employment? Your family? Are you positioned to endure the downdrafts as well as participate in the bull runs?
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About Me
- john
- As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) with extensive experience in the mortgage industry, I specialize in helping my clients find, structure and manage mortgage debt as one piece of a larger financial strategy. I provide my clients with detailed home loan and debt structuring guidance that compliments their long term financial objectives, including college savings, retirement planning and other investment goals. With an understanding of financial planning concepts that relate to taxation, investment strategy, and estate planning, I work to create a personal strategic mortgage solution for my clients’ diverse financial needs. I collaborate with advisors in other financial fields, and introduce other specialists for guidance as needed. The ability to assess and advise on all aspects of a client’s financial situation can minimize financing costs and tax exposure while building net worth – a benefit often missed when focusing on home loans exclusively.