Monday, June 18, 2007

The Yield Curve Is Sloping Upwards

With the current sell-off in the bond market, we have finally returned to an upward sloping yield curve in the 2yr - 10yr chart. It's still pretty flat, and bonds have started to retrace some of the steps they took during that little three-week selling frenzy, but we have not had an upward slope for a long time. Check out this site for a great illustration of the yield curve over the last 9 years or so (make sure to hit the 'animate' button). If it didn't make a lot of sense before, this will help. Pay close attention to the last few years where we see the Federal Reserve's steady 0.250% rate hikes (on the left) and the corresponding long term rates (on the right). This stubborn long-term rate has stayed relatively calm in the face of all those Fed tightening moves.

John C. Glynn, CMPS
Real Estate Finance & Mortgage Planning
San Francisco

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